The morale of small and medium -sized industrial companies (SMEs) Improved in April, the PMI SME index by Raiffeisen having crossed the threshold of 50 points. However, the perspectives remain fragile, especially for those exporting to the United States
The index reached 50.9 points in April, after registering at 47.9 points the previous month, said the Saint-Galloise banking cooperative on Friday in a statement.
The increase in activity and demand, in the wake of the indices of purchasing directors in the United States and in the euro zone which also increased “surprisingly”, is however due mainly to anticipation effects. American companies have supplied with primary products to protect themselves against a new increase in taxes or any disturbances in supply chains, analyze the experts of Raiffeisen.
This phenomenon is reflected in the command books, the index of which was 51.6 points in April, against 47.8 points in March. But also production (53.8 against 49.7) and purchasing stocks (51.4 against 42.9).
The upturn should however be short -lived, the American industry ending towards a period which promises to be difficult. And almost 70% of SMEs exporting expecting new customs duties.
10% fees
Since April 5, a 10% tax applies to products from Switzerland, with the exception of chemicals and pharmaceutical products for the moment, and the implementation of historically high prices has been postponed to July 9. In this context, “a great uncertainty always reigns” among SMEs who deliver to the country of Uncle Sam, compromising planning security, even for companies that are not directly established on the American market.
However, the latter are significantly less pessimistic. Only a quarter of them provides for an escalation of the trade conflict and the two-thirds even believe that current taxes will be partly or completely deleted, notes the study.
The fact remains that a slowdown in the global economic growth that could cause by customs war will weigh on all Swiss SMEs, note the economists of Raiffeisen, recalling that the internal market is secondary and that access to international markets remains essential.
This article was published automatically. Sources: ATS / AWP
