The current instability of the markets encourages to prefer more defensive business models and little exposed to American exports, according to Remo Rosenau of Helvetische Bank.
Without a discount on good rails of the Trump administration policy, volatility will predominate. An increased emphasis placed on high -quality companies and little vulnerable to the uncertainties of the moment is indicated, judge Remo Rosenau, director of research for Helvetische Bank.
How do you judge the current situation of stock markets and Swiss in particular?
The policy pursued by the Trump administration is erratic and harms the confidence of business and financial markets. The possible introduction of substantial customs duties is likely to cause a recession. In addition, the United States must refinance in 2025 for approximately $ 7 billion in bond borrowing. Such an environment encourages caution. Admittedly, the Swiss market can assert a more defensive character than its counterparts.
What are the titles that seem interesting to you in this regard?
More defensive business models and little dependent on exports to the United States are currently to be preferred. Givaudan, the manufacturer of aromas and perfumes, who has a local production and a power to fix the price, is included in this line. Just as aryzta, the manufacturer of bakers products that only operates in Europe and Asia, or Sika, the world leader in construction chemistry, which produces everywhere locally, especially in the United States.
Isn’t consensus too optimistic about Aryzta, whose action has won more than 20% this year?
He is just in our opinion. Aryzta, who recorded organic growth of 1.6% of its turnover in the first quarter of 2025, displays a solid performance. The emphasis on organic growth through the extension of production capacities and innovative products will improve the margins of Aryzta. In addition, its financing costs will drop again this year.
Aryzta is now in a stable growth phase after difficult time and a recovery phase. This company is our favorite value among the Small Caps in the food sector, with an EV/EBITDA ratio (Editor’s note: corporate value/gross operating surplus) of approximately 9x and an EV/EBIT ratio (Editor’s note: business value/operating profit) of the order of 14x.
What do you think of Barry Callebaut, whose action has dropped heavily?
Debts and especially funding costs have increased even more strongly than what was anticipated for Barry Callebaut. This had the effect of falling profits in the last semester and has negatively surprised the market. We would still wait in this case.
“Sika is among our favorites on the Swiss stock market.”
Has the SIKA stock market enhancement again again attractive?
It has become interesting again in our eyes, with a P/E (course/profit ratio) 2026 of approximately 22x; We continue to believe in Sika’s long -term growth potential and that is why the action is among our favorites on the Swiss stock market.
Sika recorded robust sales in the first quarter of 2025, in particular with the continuation of market share gains. Admittedly, the growth prospects for this year, from 3%to 6%, stand out somewhat below the intended for longer term in local currencies, from 6 to 9%; which is understandable in the present context. The EBITDA margin is expected to increase this year again.
What about Givaudan?
Givaudan started very well the year. Its growth proved to be strong in the first quarter despite a high comparison base. The dynamics of 2024 continue. The slightly more cyclical sectors such as luxury perfumery and active beauty continue to benefit from a very vigorous demand, while less cyclical business demand (around 85% of turnover) remains at a solid level.
In addition, Givaudan is barely affected by customs duties, because this company produced for the largest part locally and has a power to fix considerable prices, which was verified during the 1920s2/2023.
Vat Group, whose action has dropped significantly, has become an opportunity again?
Orders in the first quarter of 2025 of the world leader in vacuum valves could not meet expectations. However, from a perspective of long term, we see a significant potential for revaluation of the action, taking into account very promising fundamental fundamental perspectives. And this despite the short -term uncertainties by discussion of customs duties that will have indirect effects on VAT, as well as the decline in the dollar.
VAT manages to generate cash flow records even in more difficult times and very high yields of invested capital, which are still clear above 20%. Thanks to a very flexible cost structure, with a share of subcontracting of more than 60%. Without forgetting the excellence of management and the ability to gain market share.
