The abrupt turn of American policy does not mean the collapse of Canada’s foreign policy. Ottawa remains resolutely attached to free trade, UN multilateralism and NATO.
Posted at 4:00 p.m.
Jonathan Paquin Director, Higher School of International Studies, Laval University
On the other hand, in terms of security and defense, the repercussions are much more worrying. Incendiary declarations of the Trump administration evoking Canada’s economic asphyxiation in order to annex it as 51e State, or its desire to unilaterally redraw the Canadian-American border, constitute unprecedented threats to our sovereignty. In this context, what strategic lessons should Canada draw? Here are four.
1. The urgency of a strategic revision
Canada must imperatively review the balance of its strategy with regard to the United States. It remains essential, it should be remembered, to maintain the best possible relations with Washington, because, despite current tensions, the United States will remain our main economic partner at the end of the trade war.
However, it is equally important to reduce our exposure to economic risks linked to excessive dependence on the American market. This implies “deriscating1 Our economic security by actively diversifying our international partnerships and by strengthening our national resilience, in particular by a growth in interprovincial trade.
In terms of strategic autonomy, although rapprochement with Europe is a way to favor, it must be recognized that this option is partly based on an emotional reaction to Trump.
This tends to obscure the concrete limits, even the counterproductive effects, which this could cause for Canada. Some experts2 have also raised significant obstacles to Canadian industry access to the European Defense ecosystem: persistent protectionism, inadequacy of European equipment to the specific Canadian needs and saturation of European industrial capacities due to the war effort in Ukraine.
No complete substitution for American industry is realistic in the short or medium term. It will therefore be crucial to distinguish our strategic aspirations from industrial realities in the redefinition of our partnerships with Europe.
2. Trump is our biggest threat
Much more than China or Russia, it is the current American administration that represents the greatest threat to Canada, because it deliberately and persistently attacks our vital interests. Even if Trump had to moderate his words, the evil is done.
Through his provocative statements, he helped to germinate, within the radical American right, the idea that an annexation or a redefinition of the border with Canada could not only be possible but desirable.
In a global context where climate upheavals are intensifying, where fresh water is rarefly and where the race for strategic metals accelerates, the immense natural riches of Canada arouse growing interest. If Trump was to give up taking it, the fact remains that he could have traced the way to a more determined successor, ready to consider this scenario in the future.
Canada is alone
To reach the objective of the 2 % of the GDP devoted to defense could certainly be worth increased recognition in NATO, but would change the power asymmetry between Canada and the United States. Likewise, a strategic rapprochement with France or the United Kingdom cannot significantly alleviate our immense strategic vulnerability to Washington.
In the event of American assault, a tightening of links with Europe would remain essentially symbolic, because no European partner would risk direct confrontation with the world’s leading military power to defend Canada.
Besides, the lukewarm reactions of European allies3like that, embarrassed, of the secretary general of NATO, Mark Rutte4faced with Donald Trump’s expansionist aims on Greenland and repeated threats to Canada, are revealing. In short, as long as the United States respects our sovereignty and behave in responsible partners, Canada can count on a wide range of allies. But as soon as an American administration adopts a hostile posture, it is radio silence. Canada is then alone, fully dependent on the will of Washington.
We must increase our deterrent capacities
Since Canada finds itself isolated, it becomes essential to open a lucid and responsible debate on our real deterrent capacity. Today, our only deterrent lever against Trump lies in the imposition of customs tariffs on certain American products, a very thin tool in the face of an economy 10 times more powerful than ours, and completely ineffective in the face of openly expansionist ambitions.
If Trump or one of his successors had to adopt a more aggressive posture, Canada would be devoid of credible means of defense.
It is therefore up to us to assess, without taboos, our deterrent levers. Beyond the tariff measures open from the possibilities that deserve to be examined with rigor. Among these options are the development of credible cybernetic deterrence capacities, the strengthening of our conventional armed forces, and, in a controversial but necessary, the examination of the relevance and the feasibility of tactical nuclear means.
In the long term, the political survival of the country may well depend on its ability to convince any predatory power that the strategic cost of an assault or an attempted annexation would be unacceptable.1. Read “Large interview with Roland Paris – revolutionizing our foreign policy, instructions for use” 2. Lisez Shooting ourselves in the foot to spite Trump 3. Germany and France warn Trump over threat to take over Greenland 4. Lisez Trump threatens to acquire Canada, Greenland while next to NATO chief What do you think? Take part in the dialogue
