Leinster are just 80 minutes away from yet another Investec Champions Cup final, a fifth in the last seven years, with English Premiership holders Northampton Saints standing in their way.
Leo Cullen’s side know this penultimate hurdle better than anyone and have had, since 2022, few real problems vaulting it, notwithstanding last year’s late scare against the same opponents at Croke Park.
On that occasion, thanks to James Lowe’s hat-trick, Leinster had enough points on the board to reduce the visitors’ late salvo to consolation scores.
That fright will serve them well today (Live on RTÉ2/Player), and the team talk before Caelan Doris leads his men out will remind them more of that than anything they learned from coasting past Harlequins and Glasgow in the knock-out rounds.
The Saints may be champions of England but they sit seventh in the table so all their eggs are now in this basket.
However, on paper, this looks like a match-up that they simply can’t win.
Impressive victories over Clermont and Castres in the knockouts almost pale in comparison to Leinster’s last two games, in which they scored 114 points and conceded none.
“They’ve bought in [to Jacques Nienaber’s defensive system],” said Saints director of rugby Phil Dowson of Leinster’s improvement over the last 12 months.
“They’re very physical, they’re making good reads.
“If you’ve got those two things, the group are emotionally engaged and willing to work hard, and they’re good players, and you’ve got a very strong system being coached really well, it looks like a difficult defence to break down.”
The four-time champions top the season standings in carries, metres made and passes, while Northampton have scored one try more (34) than Leinster in the tournament.
There are questions marks around Northampton’s pack with no Courtney Lawes or Lewis Ludlam, who moved to Brive and Toulon, respectively.
They’re facing a reinforced Leinster forward group, who have RG Snyman in harness from the start and are able to call upon Jack Conan and Ryan Baird from the bench.
Expect Andrew Porter to replace Cian Healy in the opening half as Leinster buy into the ‘finishers’ philosophy.
LEINSTER v NORTHAMPTON: ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW
Saints captain George Furbank is out with an arm injury, while George Hendy, who scored against Munster and Leinster last season, and Ollie Sleightholme are also unavailable.
Scrum-half Alex Mitchell has caused these players problems in the past and his battle with Jamison Gibson-Park will be key. Injury-permitting, they’ll likely both be in the Lions matchday squads.
The strengths and dangers of Leinster’s back row of likely Lions Doris and Josh van der Flier, are well flagged, but they’ll have their work cut out to tame the fire of Henry Pollock.
He is one, alongside Doris, Gibson-Park and Jordie Barrett, who starts on the bench, of eight nominees for the European player of the year award.
The 20-year-old (below), who scored a brace on his England debut against Wales in the Six Nations, has crossed for six tries and has won the most turnovers in the competition with 15.
“He’s licking his lips this weekend – the bigger the occasion, the bigger his performance is,” England out-half Fin Smith, who goes head-to-head with Sam Prendergast today, said of the back row.
“He’s an ambitious guy. I imagine he’d want to be on that [Lions] tour as much as anyone, and he’ll have a certain belief that he’s good enough to be there.”
With so much going in Leinster’s favour, it’s worth looking at what could go wrong.
The 2000 winners know they have to take the URC leaders down the straight and see how they react to pressure.
The look on Doris’ face when the referee blew the final whistle in last year’s semi-final told its own story. Leinster were glad there wasn’t another five minutes left.
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“I think one of the learnings from us from that game is the need to continue to play and to attack the game,” said head coach Leo Cullen yesterday.
“There was maybe a little bit of just trying to eke out the clock to a certain extent, even subconsciously, maybe.
“So having guys like Jack [Conan] and Jordie on the bench to come on and add something will help with that.”
Leinster looked so good for significant spells in their three final losses but when things started to go wrong, they didn’t look able to escape the quicksand.
If Saints are to upset a 19-point underdog status, they’ll need to take their chances and force Leinster to make mistakes that they’ve haven’t made all season.
But once the hosts stay disciplined on both sides of the ball, and be as ruthless as they have been then another shot at a fifth star, against the winners of Sunday’s clash between champions Toulouse and Bordeaux, awaits.
Verdict: Leinster by 15
Leinster: Hugo Keenan; Tommy O’Brien, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, James Lowe; Sam Prendergast, Jamison Gibson-Park; Cian Healy, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; RG Snyman, Joe McCarthy; Max Deegan, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (capt).
Replacements: Ronan Kelleher, Andrew Porter, Rabah Slimani, Ryan Baird, Jack Conan, Luke McGrath, Ross Byrne, Jordie Barrett.
Northampton Saints: James Ramm; Tommy Freeman, Fraser Dingwall (capt) Rory Hutchinson, Tom Litchfield; Fin Smith, Alex Mitchell; Emmanuel Iyogun, Curtis Langdon, Trevor Davison; Temo Mayanavanua, Alex Coles; Josh Kemeny, Henry Pollock, Juarno Augustus
Replacements: Henry Walker, Tom West, Elliot Millar-Mills, Tom Lockett, Chunya Munga, Angus Scott-Young, Tom James, Tom Seabrook
Referee: Pierre Brousset (FFR)
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Watch the Champions Cup semi-final, Leinster v Northampton Saints, from 4.45pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app and listen to Saturday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1.
