L’Argument of the active manager is based on a double reading: a pragmatic Trump who could review his copy if the US markets are flourishing, and a Moroccan economy which asserts itself in its moderate but solid growth trajectory. The American president, known for his attachment to the markets as a barometer of his economic success, could well change his hard line on trade if the stock market indices came to fall in the durably.
For CIH Capital Management, this parameter constitutes a safeguard against a scenario of generalized withdrawal on international actions. Especially since recent corrections on the markets – often exaggerated – give way to significant rebounds, with almost 30% potential recovery in the inflection phases. In this perspective, it is better to avoid an excessive underexposure to actions.
In an inflection compared to the positioning of the beginning of the year, CCM now recommends a more marked orientation towards European actions. Their attraction is due as much to more reasonable levels of valuation as to the budgetary recovery plans currently in gestation. At the national level, the dynamics remain favorable. The central bank provides growth of 3.9% for 2025, an estimate close to that of the IMF (+3.7%).
Sign of confidence: Bank Al-Maghrib lowered its 2%inflation forecasts, allowing a 25-point drop in the key rate last March. This monetary relaxation could even continue if the conditions allow. The Casablanca Stock Exchange, after a start-up (+20% since January), experienced a marked correction in early April (-7% in one week), qualified as salutary by CCM. According to the note, this consolidation phase slows down speculative excesses and refocuses investors on the fundamentals. A positive point for the quality of upcoming arbitrations.
-Liberation Day: effects contained for Morocco
While the customs tensions initiated by the United States shake the major world flows, Morocco appears relatively spared. Exports to the United States represent only 5% of the total. Better still, limited taxation (10%) could even make Morocco a host land for industrial relocations from more heavily sanctioned countries. In short, welcome stability in a fragmented world. In this context, CIH Capital Management continues to plead for a diversified exposure, supported by two macro pillars: moderate growth and disinflation.
On the actions side, performance engines should come from the banking, cement, construction and health sectors, with the added bonus of the margins in industry thanks to the relaxation on energy and raw materials. The average dividend yield (2.9%) on the Masi remains competitive against the 10 years BDT (2.7%). The “Value” segment, still under this development according to the management company, retains a particular interest. Its resilience during recent shafts and improving market liquidity offer it significant potential. Recall here that it was the main bet of the management company in the first quarter.
On the bond front, the decline in inflation and the accommodating policy of BAM reinforce the attraction of fixed rate titles, in particular on long maturity. In an uncertain world, the refuge of obligations – which has not been affected by trade tensions – again appealed. A high duration strategy seems relevant, subject to a judicious choice of maturity. CIH Capital Management thus maintains a balanced posture, faithful to that of the first quarter, focusing on the complementarity Actions Value – Bonds with strong duration. A way to capture rebound opportunities without neglecting protection against macroeconomic and geopolitical hazards.
