The FAO index of food prices, which follows the monthly variations of a basket of products exchanged internationally, established on average at 128.3 points in April, up 1 % compared to the estimate of 127.1 points in March and 7.6 % compared to the same month of last year.
The price of cereals increased by 1.2 % compared to March. The world prices of wheat have increased slightly, supported by the tightening of exportable stocks in the Russian Federation, while the FAO index of rice prices has progressed due to a stronger demand for scented varieties.
The cost of corn has also increased due to a seasonal stocks in the United States.
Lower prices of vegetable oils and sugar
The FAO FAO for dairy prices increased by 2.4 % in April compared to the previous month to reach 22.9 % more than a year earlier. The increase was driven by international butter prices, which have reached a new historic record due to the drop in stocks in Europe.
The FAO price for meat prices increased by 3.2 % in April compared to March, with rising quotes in all categories of meat, with in mind those of porcine meat.
On the other hand, the value of vegetable oils fell 2.3 %, while remaining 20.7 % higher at its level of a year ago. The price of sugar has also dropped by 3.5 % compared to March, largely due to concerns about uncertain global economic prospects and their potential impact on the demand of drinks and food processing sectors.
A corn producer in Ethiopia is seated on cereal bags after harvest.
-Record production of cereals in Asia
In addition, the latest FAO forecasts for the production of wheat in 2025 are 795 million tonnes, the same level as the previous year. The prospects indicate a record production in Asia, supported by India and Pakistan, better conditions in southern Europe and North Africa, as well as stable production in Canada and in the Russian Federation.
However, rainfall deficits in Northern Europe and the Middle East and concerns related to drought in the United States weigh on global prospects.
In the meantime, FAO has slightly revised its estimates concerning global cereal production in 2024, to 4,848 million tonnes, even if global rice production in 2024/25 will probably increase by 1.5 % to reach the record level of 543.6 million tonnes.
Slight drop in world cereal trade
World cereal stocks should decrease by 1.9 % to 868.2 million tonnes at the end of the 2025 campaigns, which would bring FAO forecasts for the Stocks/Use of cereals in 2024/25 to 29.9 %, which is still considered a comfortable buffer zone.
The FAO has slightly reduced its forecasts for world cereal trade in 2024/25 to 478.6 million tonnes, which would represent a contraction of 6.8 % compared to 2023/24 and the lowest level since 2019/20.
The global trade in secondary cereals is expected to contract even faster, mainly due to the drop in demand from China and the decrease in exportable corn stocks in Brazil.
International rice trade should increase by 1.2 % to a new record of 60.4 million tonnes.
