The ceasefire is supposed to bring a respite and security to the Ukrainians, a breathing in the rain of Russian bombs and attacks which threaten the military and the civilians on a breath of life. According to a UN report consulted by the New York Times, life has however become more difficult for civilians since the start of discussions for a cease-fire. And the chances of dying, more important. Since the start of the negotiations in February, fighting on the front line would have made more civilian victims than at the same time last year.
More bombing, and more civilian targets
Housing buildings, children’s play areas, crowded sidewalks … Among the targets affected by Russia in Ukraine, areas populated by civilians are even more targeted than before the start of talks led by the administration of Donald Trump, also reveals an analysis of recent strikes. “In the first 24 days of April, 848 civilians were killed or injured, an increase of 46 % compared to the same period last year, according to the UN,” reports the big American daily. Over the first three months of the year, the UN documented more than 2,641 civilians killed or injured, 900 civilians more as the same period in the previous year.
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Another report, this time from the Ukrainian Air Force, reports that within 30 days of Donald Trump’s phone call to the two leaders, on February 12, 2025, Russia launched 4,694 missiles and drones against Ukraine, against 1,873 in the previous 30 days. Ukraine’s military strategies are also implicated. The same morning where kyiv accepted the ceasefire, on March 11, the Ukrainian forces launched the biggest drone attack on Moscow since the start of the war, killing three people and wounding 18 others, according to Russia.
Territorial conquests at the heart of negotiations
If it may seem contradictory and counterproductive to reach a climate of peace, an increase in violence is not uncommon during the negotiation phases to reach a cease-fire, according to the UN analysts cited by the NYT. “When negotiations are underway, they say, the armies at war often seek to take the advantage before a truce ends the fighting,” they specify.
But for Samuel Charap, Russia analyst at the Rand Corporation questioned by the newspaper, if “the armies carry every possible blows before having to stop”, an increase in attacks “does not necessarily mean rejection of the negotiation process”. The capture of cities before the ceasefire also often serves as additional levers for the parties, in order to impose their conditions during the negotiations.
If the hope of a ceasefire is present, for the moment no agreement is publicly close to being reached. After starting talks on February 12 with telephone calls to Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, a first US an unconditional truce of 30 days was accepted on March 11 by Ukraine, without succeeding. The short 30 -hour truce offered by Russia for Easter Sunday was raped by the two camps, which accuse each other.
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While Donald Trump assured during Easter week that an agreement was near, his vice-president JD Vance hinted last Thursday on Fox New that negotiations could continue until the summer. This Saturday, May 3, kyiv also said that she opposed the “short truces” proposed by Vladimir Putin, estimating these deadlines too short to lead serious talks.
