© D-Keine/Getty Images – Krach on the stock market, equity investor
CAC 40 has just taken “A monumental slap, and it’s far from over!», Prognostic James D. Touati (known as the wolf of Zurich), consultant, trainer, trader and founding president of The Nest, interviewed by Capitaland who had warned our readers in time (March 19) of the risk of Krach to Wall Street (Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq, etc.). Between the aggressive customs duties of Donald Trump and the freezing speech of Jerome Powell, the boss of the Fed, the flagship equity index of the Paris Stock Exchange “Flicker like a groggy boxer“, Notes the expert, who stresses that the CAC 40 has gone from a promising year to a debacle in just a few days. Overview …
Donald Trump hit hard on the trade war, with his immediate customs duties, and the impact was colossal on the stock market: for Wall Street, but also for CAC 40, Hang Seng, Nikkei 225, Dax and all other major equity markets. Accusing a historic dive, the CAC 40 fell (at the bottom, at a course of 6,764 points this Monday) by 14% since April 2, 2025, its worst performance for a long time. “”The sectors most exposed to international exchanges, such as the automobile and banks, have taken expensive. Investors flee these actions such as the plague», Note the wolf of Zurich.
Read also: Stock Exchange: CAC 40 dives, Trump could “push the United States to the brink of recession”
Growth threatened by customs duties, Fed which cools the hopes … CAC 40 plunges!
Global economic growth is threatened. With American customs duties reaching 20% on the European Union and 54% on China, the European economic recovery could lose between 1.5 and 2 points of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 according to UBS. “”A real sword of Damocles for the euro zone“, Land on the consultant. However, inflation should remain tenacious, customs duties adding imported goods. “The Patrone of the Fed has dropped a bomb, warning that inflation would remain high due to the additional imports. Translation: no drop in guiding rates for 2025 »warns James D. Touati, who fears a restrictive policy. The Fed “Maintains its rates between 4.25% and 4.50%, which continues to weigh heavily on risky assets (such as shares). The markets are taken hostage“, Underlines the expert.
What prospects for the CAC 40, after the Krach? An optimistic scenario and a disaster scenario
In an optimistic scenario, if commercial tensions find a negotiated solution by the end of 2025, “We could see a technical rebound from CAC 40 to 7,500 points, a key level to watch. Domestic values such as luxury actions (LVMH, Hermès, etc.) or public services could do well thanks to a weakened euro (-4% since June 2024)», Judges the wolf of Zurich.
-But in a disaster scenario, if Donald Trump still hardens his protectionist measures (customs duties), “Prepare for a brutal correction of the CAC 40 until around 5,630 points (a symbolic threshold seen on September 29, 2022), according to technical analysis (Graphic and mathematical analysis of the evolution of stock market prices, intended to develop the most likely scenarios for the prospects of actions), which presents in particular a classic configuration (to bearish involvement) called ascending bevel “warns the consultant, who notes that with a French public debt reaching 112% of GDP, the state has little margin to relaunch the economy.
CAC 40: The evolution of volumes exchanged on the stock market reflects a capitulation of institutional investors!
In view of the low mood for the French State’s budgetary maneuver, we can fear a probable sub-performance of the CAC 40 against the Dax (German equivalent of the CAC 40) or the FTSE (equivalent of the CAC 40 for the United Kingdom). From the point of view of technical analysis, the volumes exchanged exploded at 15 billion euros on April 4, a sign of a massive capitulation of institutional investors.
© TradingView, James D. Touati analysis – CAC 40: Evolution of stock market prices and technical analysis
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What catalysts to come for the CAC 40?
“The next BCE decisions (April 25) and the French legislative elections in June will be decisive. But with political instability that hovers like a black cloud, the CAC 40 risks staying under pressure. In summary, the Paris Stock Exchange is in the strings, and only clear signals on the economic or political front could avoid a technical KO ”warns James D. Touati.
Momentum readers, the daily premium investment letter of capital on the stock market, were able to lighten on the CAC 40 near the 2025 summit and were warned upstream of the risk of the flagship stock index of the Paris Stock Exchange. While our selection of actions has experienced a much better trajectory on the whole than that of the CAC 40, our team had warned in recent weeks of the high risk of net dropping out many CAC 40 actions (Stellantis, Capgemini, Stmicroelectronics, Schneider Electric, etc.). Buy and sell the CAC 40 and your stock markets at the right time with Momentum. By opting for an annual subscription, 5 months are offered? To take advantage of it, simply click on the link below.
