Since the return of Donald Trump to the White House, on January 20, the fate of Ukraine seems to be taken in vice by two chaos architects-to paraphrase the writer Giuliano Da Empoli and his chaos engineers-launched in a sort of reciprocal, as a rescuing as I am who know how to end. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are made of the same wood, between narcissism and paranoia, authoritarianism and absence of empathy, using chaos to establish their power and eager to return to the time of the empires, the golden age (golden age) 19th century Americae century for one, the USSR for the other. But if common points are obvious between the two leaders, significant differences remain between the 78-year-old American billionaire and the 72-year-old austere former KGB agent.
Returning to power after an amazing darling, Donald Trump, moved by the desire to take revenge on all those who challenged him, is better prepared than during his first mandate. His first 100 days have dizzy by the number of decisions taken and the reversals of American policies carried out so far. The trade war and its XXL customs tariffs has destabilized the world economy; The merger with Moscow overthrew alliances with Europe in force since the end of the Second World War. Trump was mainly hoping to start his mandate by regulating the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, then in 100 days – even dreaming of the Nobel Prize – and then establish fruitful bilateral trade relations with Russia in order to counter China. We are far from it.
On the other hand, Vladimir Putin has sowed chaos for a long time, orchestrating wars in Chechnya, interference in Georgia, influence operations against the United States and European countries-whose France-and a war in Ukraine whose premiums began with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 before the invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago. Putin saw Trump’s coming to power, this businessman saved from bankruptcy by Russia in the 80s and 90s, with a good eye. And left him the impression of wanting to negotiate.
But the reality show that signed the best-seller “the art of the deal” and the former spy experienced with subtle and/or brutal manipulations are not on an equal footing. Donald Trump may have signed an important mining agreement with Ukraine this week, he had to concede that the Kremlin master seemed to “stroll” him. And for good reason, where Trump wants rapid and tangible results, at least before the elections of midterm In 2026, Putin, who will remain in power until 2036, has time for him and played the watch, even if it means exhausting his country economically.
Faced with the inexperience of American diplomats, Putin implements the Gromyko method, named after the former Soviet foreign minister that Westerners called Mr. Niet during the Cold War. The Russian president pretends to want to negotiate, asks the maximum, including what he has never had, launches ultimatums – as on the truce he has unilaterally decreed from May 8 to 10 – but does not give in, hoping to obtain part of what he requires. The world looks at this showdown, with helplessness among Europeans and concern among the Ukrainians. If there are two chaos architects, there seems to be only one master of clocks. And, for the moment, he is in Moscow …
