(Circlefinance.com) -Day strangely calm in the end on the Forex (except for the book which unscrews against all the currency, -1% against the dollar, -0.8% against the euro).
For example, the Dollar Index has not shifted by more than 0.15% to 103.15 but the extremes of sessions are part of a 102.25/103.50 range, more than 1% of ‘Intraday.
It is anecdotal compared to volatility to climax on stock market indices, and fluctuations close to the most violent episodes ‘Portes de Saloon’ on the rates.
Wall Street, the T-Bonds, Euro-Stox50, the Bunds, were tossed in all directions because of a ‘rumor’ (false and denied after 30mn) which made Wall Street believe that Trump announced a ’90-day break’ for the application of ‘tariffs’ (the ‘break’ is already seen with Canada and Mexico) (Extrapolation of remarks made by Kevin Asset, advisor for commercial issues, taken up by CNBC) … ‘Infox’ denied by the White House.
The meteoric rise in US indices ( +1,000pts on the Nasdaq, +$ 3,000MDS of ‘Capi’ on the values of the S & P500 (before reperdre -5%, ie -2,500MDS $ in a handful of minutes during the denial) would have been the cause of a ‘sell-off’ on T-bonds (return of ‘risk-on’).
Unstoppable sign of the nervousness of the markets, the VIX index reached 60 (+33%) around 3:30 p.m. before coming out of 49 (+9%).
But another info, much less resumed on financial networks-and confirmed by several ‘sources’- reports a sale of $ 50mds in US t-bonds by China, as a retaliation of’ rates’ (54%) targeting its exports.
-Beijing would have reduced his detention of ‘Treasuries’ from 750 to 700MDS $ in a session … Without prejudice to the dollar, apparently since he increased by +0.6% against the Yuan around 7.31 (massive sales of T-Bonds should have produced the opposite effect).
Donald Trump has just retaliated: China will receive +50%customs duties (in addition to +34%) if Beijing maintains its counter-sanctions (the rate would actually be 104%, what to stop the world trade and trigger a planetary stock market!).
But the green tap is certainly supported by the rebound in the yield of t-bonds at 10 years old, from 3.88% to 4.15% (+27pts at 6.30 p.m.) and even 4.247% in session.
For the ‘2 years’, increase of +5pts in the yield to 3.72% (against 3.46% this morning: +26pts).
Another spectacular difference over the ’30 years’, with +21pts at 4.603%, after 4.355%this morning, or +25pts on the floor of 4.353%.
Note that gold, the active refuge par excellence did not benefit from market stress and threatens to fall under the $ 3,000/Oz.
The ‘Cryptos’ end the day badly with -4% on Bitcoin (around 78,000) and -8% on Ethereum ($ 1,500, supporting $ 1,550 broken): the BTC has indeed remote under the $ 75,000 in the morning.
