DECRYPTING. Peace in Ukraine: how Vladimir Putin seeks to transform the military deadlock in the war into a diplomatic victory

May 9 approaches, and with him one of the most important moments in the Russian political calendar: the festival of victory. This commemoration of the Nazi defeat in 1945 is each year the theater of an imposing military parade on the Red Square, but in 2025, it took on a particular dimension. After more than three years of war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin seeks to make a narrative turning point: not the end of the war, but a victorious rewriting of the current conflict.

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The geopolitical climate has recently changed. Donald Trump’s return to the White House gave Moscow an unexpected diplomatic lever. The American president has raised certain sanctions, reopened by the dialogue canals and puts into the most hostile speeches. This warming has not gone unnoticed at the Kremlin, which sees it as an opportunity to get out of the isolation imposed since 2022.

In this context, the signing of an agreement between Ukraine and the United States on the exploitation of minerals, in particular rare earths, could have aroused a virulent reaction from Russia. But according to specialist Carole Grimaud, the Kremlin can afford the restraint. “What counts for Putin are the economic and diplomatic benefits. Rare Lands, Russia already controls a large part, especially in the occupied areas of Donbass and the South.”

A war that persists … and a tactical ceasefire

Officially, war continues. Witness the strikes that aimed this week Zaporijia and Odessa this week. However, Vladimir Putin decreed a unilateral ceasefire from May 8 to 10. A symbolic gesture, intended to fuel the account of a listened to peace, in the absence of real peace.

This strategy mainly targets Russian public opinion, whose real aspirations remain vague. If the surveys are rare and supervised, several studies have shown that Russian and Ukrainians mainly wish a peace treaty. Hence the importance, for the Kremlin, to offer “gestures”, while maintaining the strategic objective: to preserve the conquered territories.

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Inside Russian power, the climate is uncertain. “Putin is no longer alone to decide,” explains Carole Grimaud. “It is under pressure from rivals elite groups, which has appeared since the start of the war. Some have supported the opening to the United States, others oppose it frontally.” This internal rivalry generates visible contradictions in the President’s speeches, oscillating between diplomatic moderation and anti-Western rhetoric.

But far from weakening it, this complexity paradoxically reinforces the position of Vladimir Putin. By managing these contradictory currents, he maintains himself as a central referee of the system. He adapts his speech to the circumstances: conciliation with Trump, firmness towards Europe, which becomes “the new privileged target”. The expected presence of Xi Jinping on May 9 will also confirm the maintenance of a strong axis between Moscow and Beijing, in a subtle balance with Washington.

A victory above all narrative

It is in this context that the future speech of May 9 must be read. Less aggressive towards the United States, he will insist on the openings of peace as a culmination of the Russian force, not as a concession. “Russian power wants to transform peace into a victory,” sums up Carole Grimaud. This narrative logic aims to defuse internal criticism, to galvanize patriotic supports, while reassuring a population exhausted by war.

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Even the signals sent to France – as the evocation of a group of French fighters on the Russian side – are more of the staging than a military strategy. It is a way for Putin to tell her European interlocutors: you are not out of the game, you are even in it, whether you wanted it or not.

The question remains: where is Vladimir Putin today? If he did not win the war in Ukraine, he partly won the battle of time. Thanks to the American turning point, it is no longer an absolute outset. Thanks to partial territorial control, he keeps strong cards in the event of negotiations. And thanks to his internal management of power, he remains the strong man of the Kremlin.

May 9 will therefore be less a military celebration than a political “storytelling” exercise: war is not over, but Russia, according to Putin, has already won.