Gas prices have been backing up since May 1, but this upturn could be short -lived in the face of geopolitical uncertainties and future tax adjustments.
A decrease of 6.4 % of the regulated gas rate came into force this month, bringing the price to 14,277 cents including tax per kWh according to official data. This positive development comes after several months of buzzing costs, linked in particular to a particularly cold winter having increased demand. For an average household, this decline results in limited savings: around 114 euros annually for culinary and health uses, and 277 euros with the heating included.
Experts, however, highlight the cyclical nature of this seasonal drop. Traditionally, prices are experiencing a spring decrease before returning to the approach of fall approaching, depending on the variations in consumption. This natural market dynamic should therefore not be an illusion on a downward sustainable trend.
More worrying, several factors could quickly reverse this downward curve. On the one hand, the taxes relating to distribution networks will experience an increase in July, while VAT on subscriptions will go from 5.5 % to 20 %. On the other hand, international trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts create permanent instability in the global energy markets, with unpredictable impact on prices.
This situation recalls that French households remain exposed to a high volatility of energy costs, despite the occasional adjustments. The current decline, although real, does not compensate for the significant increases accumulated in recent years, and its effect could be canceled by the next market developments.
