The Gold course rose to a weekly summit around 3 132 dollars l’oncebrought by increased demand linked to trade tensions between the United States and China. Despite a technical recovery in world stock markets, investors maintain their preference for the traditional refuge offered by yellow metal. A dynamic accentuated by waiting for the next figures for American inflation, which could directly influence the trajectory of the rates of the Federal reserve (Fed).
Read also: the yellow metal flies away, Wall Street retains its breath … The price chaos relaunches the gold race!
Trade war and inflation relaunch the gold rush
The sudden announcement of an increase in 125 % of Chinese import taxesin response to a surcharge of 50 % decreed by Beijingbrought up the spectrum of a commercial climb. This rise in tension between the two largest world economies fuels fears of growth disturbances and a revival of inflation. In this uncertain environment, precious metal benefits from a sustained purchase flow, reaching Its best daily performance since October 2023 with a progression of more than 2 %.
Hopes of lower rates weaken the dollar
While the markets were betting recently on aggressive reductions in guiding rates, the minutes of the Mars meeting of the FED slowed down this enthusiasm. Several influential voices within the institution have expressed their prudence. Neel Kashkaripresident of the Fed of Minneapolis, considers that inflation imported via prices requires great vigilance. Beth Hammackfrom the Cleveland Fed, evokes a “moderately restrictive” policy, while Tom Barkin (Richmond) et Alberto Musalem (Saint-Louis) are concerned with persistent price increases from June.
These declarations moderate market expectations, which now expects only a reduction in 75 base points by the end of 2025. The US dollarweakened by this revision, struggles to bounce back, which reinforces the attraction of theNon -paying gold.
Inflation data, catalyst for the next movement
The gaze of operators now turns to the publication of theConsumer price index (ICC)followed by theProduction price index (PPI). These indicators will determine the future orientation of American monetary policy and could mark a turning point for the evolution of Gold course.
According to our expert: inflation is watching, the rates hesitate, gold jubilant: why investors rush on XAU/USD now?
-An increase beyond expectations would strengthen doubts about a rapid softening of the Fed, while deceleration of inflation could relaunch betting on more marked rate drops, for the benefit of the Xau/USD.
Technical analysis: gold is anchored above its supports
On the graphic level, theonce d’or confirmed its robustness while retaining a CAP Haussier above its simple mobile average at 200 periodswhich reinforces the prospect of a return to the Historical record of 3,168 dollars recently reached. THE daily oscillators remain upwards, providing support for long positions.
In the event of a correction, a withdrawal under the 3 100 dollars could be contained by a technical support area between 3,065 and 3,060 dollars. A net crossing of this threshold would accentuate the selling pressure with a possible return to the 3 000 dollarspsychological level coinciding with another Major Mobile Mobile in 4h graphics.
Yellow metal, referee of an economy on the wire
Between diplomatic tensions, monetary uncertainty and inflationary volatility, the Gold course evolves as a real barometer of market anxiety. The prospect of a new test of High Historical High It remains lively, provided that the next macroeconomic publications do not reverse the trend.
The balance between aggressive tariff policy, prudent communication of the Fed and perception of global risk will shape the trajectory of the Xau/USD in the future. Yellow metal remains, more than ever, at the heart of the defensive strategies of institutional and individual investors.
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