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Approaching the 80th anniversary of the “Victory Day”, Vladimir Putin seems to want to transform this historical commemoration into a strategic instrument, both military and diplomatic. Between massive deployment of troops, ads of ambiguous truce and ambitions of symbolic reconquest, May 9, 2025 could become a pivotal moment in the war in Ukraine
In this year 2025, when the war in Ukraine continues, Vladimir Putin could transform on May 9, “Victory Day” celebrating the victory of the USSR over Nazi Germany, at a strategic rocking point. As the 80 approachese Anniversary of this major celebration, several clues suggest that a Russian offensive could be launched before May 9. The accumulation of troops near the border-78,000 men-, especially in the Donetsk regions and around Kharkiv, indicates that the Kremlin seeks to obtain a symbolic military success-was it partial-to strengthen its position. The displayed objective: to announce the “complete liberation of the Donbass” and other advances in the south and east of Ukraine.
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Such a victory would allow Putin to present himself as the legitimate successor of the USSR, while consolidating his internal support and by displaying an image of international force, especially during the presence of more than 20 heads of state and government in Moscow for the military parade in the Red Square.
-Strange truce
However, the announcement of a three -day truce, from May 8 to 10, for the day of victory, raises questions. If this break in the fighting allows Russian troops to rest and preserve the image of the country during the festivities, it seems above all to be a tactic to prevent Ukrainian attacks from tarnishing the celebration. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, denounced this truce as an “attempted manipulation”, which reflects the perception of many analysts who consider this decision as a means of forcing kyiv to accept a temporary break while leaving the Kremlin free to define Ukrainian violations.
On May 9, 2025, for Putin, is not only an opportunity to commemorate history, it is also a lever for the present war. The Kremlin has planned important festivities, with a military parade symbolizing Russian power and solidarity with its geopolitical allies. The presence of leaders of countries like China and Venezuela reinforces the image of international support for Russia in its confrontation with the West.
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However, although this temporary truce and this potential offensive before May 9 may seem skilful maneuvers, reality remains complex. The Ukrainian resistance is always strong, and the fortifications make any decisive breakthrough difficult. Thus, although Putin can use the day of victory to display his power, he knows that the war continues, and that the military challenge remains major. The truce, in reality, does not mark the end of the fighting or the beginning of a dialogue of peace, but rather testifies to the extension of a long -term conflict.
