20:00 ▪ 6 min in reading ▪ By Luc Jose A.
The dollar has slowed down, but the world markets have retained their breath. After three weeks of climbing, the greenback gives in the field, carried by a report on employment more vigorous than expected. However, tensions persist: growth that holds, frozen rates, sustainable tariff uncertainties. Cryptos are no exception to this monetary ballet. For Crypto traders, each dollar upheaval redraws the risk card, moves the volatility border and recomposes liquidity anticipations.
In short
- The dollar fell slightly after three weeks increase, carried by a more solid than expected employment report.
- 177,000 jobs were created in April in the United States, a figure greater than expectations, which strengthens the prudence of the Fed.
- China is studying an American offer to revive pricing discussions and could cooperate on the fentanyl file.
- For cryptos, a strong dollar and a wait -and -see monetary policy maintain the pressure on prices.
A robust labor market that redefines monetary expectations
The latest employment figures in the United States have exceeded analysts’ expectations. Indeed, the report published on Friday shows that 177,000 non -agricultural jobs were created in April, against 130,000 expected.
At the same time, the figure of March was revised downwards, and goes from 228,000 to 185,000. This maintenance of a solid pace on the labor market confirms monetary managers in their prudence.
Jason Pride, director of investment strategy research at Glenmede said:
Today’s employment report probably allows the Fed to adopt a more patient approach concerning rate decreases this year.
He said the central bank was trying to assess “If the most important risk is that of stagnation or that of inflation”in a context of persistent tariff pressures.
The markets have revised their anti -monetary policy anticipations, as evidenced by several key indicators noted after the publication of the data:
- The probability of a drop in rates in June dropped to 35.6 %, compared to 58 % the day before;
- The long -term market now only has three rate drops of 25 basic points by this end of the year, against four before;
- The dollar, which was appreciated during the week, reduced its earnings after the publication, while remaining on a weekly upward trend;
- The euro has closed the week down 0.5 % against the dollar, its highest weekly decrease since mid-March.
This configuration strengthens the idea that the Fed may not act before summer, which extends a period of monetary wait -and -see. For crypto markets, this means that the conditions for support by monetary relaxation, often catalyst for increases, are not yet combined. The solidity of the dollar remains a pressure factor on risky assets, which thus slows down the upward impulses on the market.
Commercial diplomacy relaunches speculation on the markets
In addition to economic data, it is trade tensions and diplomatic signals that fueled the volatility of the dollar at the end of the week. On Thursday evening, Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated on Fox News that discussions with China could resume soon.
This statement followed a Beijing opening signal for a resumption of negotiations. On Friday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed that it evaluated an American proposal which aims to relaunch discussions on the customs tariffs imposed in early April.
In addition, China would plan to take measures concerning its responsibility in the fentanyl production chain, in response to American pressures. These elements have contributed to strengthening the optimism of the markets, which now anticipate a possible de -escalation.
Internationally, Japan has also intensified its dialogue with Washington. The negotiator Ryosei Akazawa reported having deepened discussions with the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, on subjects related to trade, non -tariff and economic security measures.
Japanese finance minister Katsunobu Kato even mentioned the possibility of using the more than $ 1,000 billion in US Treasury vouchers held by Tokyo as a strategic lever. These elements reinforce the hypothesis of a reconfiguration of commercial power relations, with potential consequences on the stability of the dollar and, by ricochet, on the overall financial markets.
For cryptos, the implications are not negligible. On the one hand, a dollar which is strengthened on the basis of a return of commercial trust can limit the attraction of these assets, considered as alternative refuges values. On the other hand, the prospect of geopolitical normalization could restore confidence in the markets, which would indirectly promote a renewed appetite for risk. However, activity data could remain strong for a few months due to the anticipation of prices, before falling expenses and layoffs later in the summer. If this scenario is confirmed, volatility could go into force on the Crypto market in the third quarter.
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A graduate of Sciences PO Toulouse and holder of a Blockchain consultant certification issued by Alyra, I joined the Cointribuna adventure in 2019. Convinced of the potential of blockchain to transform many sectors of the economy, I made the commitment to raise awareness and inform the general public about this constantly evolving ecosystem. My goal is to allow everyone to better understand the blockchain and to seize the opportunities they offer. I strive every day to provide an objective analysis of the news, to decipher market trends, to relay the latest technological innovations and to put into perspective the economic and societal issues of this revolution in progress.
