Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke
West Side
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 66 to 72. East winds up to 15 mph.
Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 81. East winds up to 20 mph.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 67 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph.
South Side
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 65 to 74. North winds up to 10 mph.
Sunday: Sunny. Highs around 87. North winds up to 10 mph.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 65 to 74. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.
North Shore
Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Central Maui
Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 64 to 69. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 82 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 67. East winds 10 to 20 mph.
Upcountry
Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight.
Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.
-Sunday Night: Breezy. Mostly clear with scattered showers. Lows 42 to 53. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 30 percent.
East Maui
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Lanai City
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 67. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.
Sunday: Sunny. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 65. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.
Travel In Fours
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 56 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 70 to 86. East winds 10 to 20 mph.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 56 to 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph.
Synopsis
A cold front stalling out northwest of Kauai will weaken the trade winds slightly through Monday. Breezy trade winds return from Tuesday onward as the subtropical ridge builds in north of the island chain. Brief passing showers remain in the forecast through Sunday, shower trends increase early next week especially during the overnight to early morning hours.
Discussion
The satellite water vapor imagery shows an area of strong subsidence and stability over the eastern islands this evening. An upper level cold core low roughly 800 miles west of Kauai will slowly drift towards the state early next week. A cold front stalling out roughly 800 miles northwest of Kauai will slowly weaken the ridge north of the state.
Expect breezy trade wind speeds to moderate slightly through Monday as the high pressure ridge north of the state weakens in response to the cold air and divergence aloft near the stalling cold front northwest of Kauai. Breezy trade winds will return from Tuesday onward as the high pressure ridge builds back in north of the state.
Brief passing trade wind showers will continue into Sunday favoring the windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours this weekend. Expect increasing shower trends starting Sunday night into Tuesday as the unstable upper low approaches the islands from the west and lifts the subsidence inversion over the island chain. Additional showers will develop from Tuesday night to Wednesday across the state as the unstable cloud remnants of an old cold frontal band drifts from east to west across the islands in the breezy trade winds.
Aviation
Breezy trades will persist through the 24-Hr forecast period, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Though periods with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS are possible in showers over windward areas, VFR conditions will prevail for most areas.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb below 070 for all islands. This may be relaxed briefly over the western end of the state late Sunday into Monday as the ridge weakens to the north.
Marine
Moderate to locally strong trades will prevail tonight through Monday, then strengthen to fresh to strong levels Tuesday through the end of the work week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island through 6 pm Monday. This SCA will likely need to be extended in time and expanded to additional waters Monday night through late next week.
Surf along south-facing shores will gradually lower tonight and Sunday as the current south swell declines. A fresh, long-period south-southwest swell is expected to arrive late Sunday and Sunday night, peak Monday through Tuesday, then decline Wednesday through Thursday. A larger south swell will arrive late in the work week, and peak near advisory levels along south facing shores next weekend.
Surf along east-facing shores will hold steady near seasonal averages through late next week.
Surf along north-facing shores will gradually decline through the remainder of the weekend as a medium-period north-northwest swell fades. A series of small northwest through north swells will move through the islands keeping surf from going flat next week.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maui County Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov
