Stephen Miran is one of the great economists surrounding Donald Trump. The increase in customs duties is its idea, and this is only a first step to depreciate the dollar in order to reindustrialize the United States and strengthen its military power.
Reading the newspapers, Trump would be a big beast, a madman at the top of the most powerful state in the world. He would like butter and butter money. Its increase in customs tariffs would be based on a short-term vision of the economy; It will soon lead to an inflationary runaway. America will sink: we dare not rejoice, even if we pray for the rout of the tyrant. Except that if Trump is not an economist, he is surrounded by brilliant economists: among them, Stephen Miran, Harvard graduate. Chairman of the Council of White House economic advisers, Stephen Miran published in November 2024, in the aftermath of the billionaire’s re-election, a fifty-page document entitled A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System : a whole program that explains in particular the real Reason for the increase in customs tariffs, and demonstrates that at the failure of the economy, Trump is three strokes ahead.
Overpowered dollar: not just advantages, according to Miran
Miran starts from a cruel paradox: the United States, contrary to what one might think, benefit as much as they suffer from the value of the dollar. Its status as a global reserve currency makes it a strong motto, which weighs on American industry; However, the disturbing deindustrialisation of the United States presents a danger to national security-because a state is powerful when its industrial production is greater than the activity of its services. In other words, the overvaluation of the dollar, which leads to the deindustrialization of the country and the subsidence of the local economy, weakens national defense. “In the absence of major geopolitical rivalswrites Miran, American leaders thought they could minimize the importance of the decline in industrial facilities. But China and Russia being not only commercial but also safe threats, it is again necessary to have a robust and well diverse manufacturing sector. »»
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The dilemma is as follows: if the dollar is too strong and the United States no longer exports, the dollar turns against the United States; At the same time, the fact that it is the main reserve currency of the world is essential to guarantee the military power of America. “America’s reserve currency statuswrites Stephen Miran, Weighs the burden of an overvalued currency eroding the competitiveness of our exporting sector, which is offset by the geopolitical advantages brought by the financial extraterritoriality in the achievement of the fundamental national security objectives, at a minimal cost. »» For the economist, it is necessary to find a balance in the value of the dollar: however, the fact that it is too strong today slows the industrialization of the United States, and therefore puts its safety at stake. What it offers is that the United States negotiates … to depreciate the dollar. Alas! The United States no longer has the aura or the power they had the day after the war. Their negotiation margin is considerably reduced. How to constitute countries to 1° depreciate their reserve currency, 2° Adjust the value of their own currencies for the benefit of the United States of America, 3° Participate in the reindustrialisation of America?… First and foremost, by imposing exorbitant customs tariffs.
The Mar-A-Lago Nego
For Stephen Miran, the increase in customs tariffs, a solution already successfully used in 2018-2019 (that is to say without significant inflation), presents all the advantages. In addition to the fact that it ultimately leads – after a first time of appreciation – a depreciation of the dollar, it in no way affects the purchasing power of American consumers (because the depreciation of foreign currencies compensate for customs duties: in other words, the citizens of the exporting countries are becoming poorer … in favor of the American treasury, which “collects revenues”!), Jobs, and to finance the maintenance of low tax rates for Americans. Stephen Miran, let’s say it frankly, is not our friend: his doctrine will have the effect of impoverishing us to enrich the United States: the winner takes all.
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We will wonder how foreign countries will accept without reprisals a punitive and interested increase in customs prices? First, the United States remains an important source of demand for global consumption: it has the means to impose its will (by closing their markets, by limiting their exports, etc.). Then they have a military protection power that they reserve the right to remove from the reluctant countries. Will Europe go by the United States by constituting a common defense? So much the better, answers Miran, Cynique: the United States will be able to focus on China!
-In conclusion, what Stephen Miran wants is a new global economic order: increasing customs duties to negotiate a new Plaza agreement (Miran offers “Mar-A-Lago agreements”), depreciate the dollar, reindustrialize America and strengthen its military power: “A decrease in the value of the dollar contributes to creating jobs in the American manufacturing sector and to reassign the overall demand from the rest of the world to the United States. »» The increase in customs tariffs must be the first of the sticks to obtain these agreements; The closure of the American markets, the withdrawal of military defense to recalcitrant countries, will be the next threats to be implemented. What to explain a large part of the declarations apparently Erratic of President Trump …
Stephen Miran’s test:
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf
A French translation:
La doctrine Miran : le plan de Trump pour disrupter la mondialisation
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